The reward isn’t always greater than the risk for aggressive coaches: Analysis

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Nick Sirianni got away with aggressive decisions that failed. Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton had no such luck.

It’s easy to second-guess when the calls don’t work.

The Philadelphia Eagles held on to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-23 on Sunday thanks to a twisting interception in the end zone by linebacker Nakobe Dean.

If not, Sirianni would be lamenting passing up nine points. The Eagles went 0 for 2 on fourth down, choosing to try to extend drives instead of trying two field goals inside of 45 yards. They also failed three times on 2-point conversion attempts, including twice when Jalen Hurts was stopped on the tush push.

“We’ve done pretty good with those in the past. You always think about everything. You think about who you have. You think about your past experiences with it. You always look at the analytics of it,” Sirianni explained. “In the moment I’m always doing what I think is best for the football team. Today it didn’t work. That’s the way it goes. That’s the hat I have to wear. When we get a fourth down and we convert a fourth down, nothing is really said. When we don’t, I understand there will be questions.

“Again, I have to be able to have the (guts) to do that really at the end of the day and say, ‘Am I doing everything I can do to help us win the game?’ In those moments I thought I was, but I’ll go back and relook at them. I’m always going to be hypercritical of myself. When it doesn’t work, I’m definitely going to think even more about it.”

The Eagles blew a 22-0 lead and were in position to lose when the Jaguars had a first down at the 13 with 1:42 left in the game. But Trevor Lawrence threw a poor pass intended for D’Ernest Johnson and Dean made a leaping grab to seal the fourth straight win for Philadelphia (6-2).

That’s not enough to silence the critics. Sirianni’s questionable decisions dominated the conversation after a game that featured Saquon Barkley’s backward hurdle over a defender and DeVonta Smith’s incredible one-handed, diving TD catch.

The Cowboys couldn’t overcome McCarthy’s aggressive decisions that backfired in a 27-21 loss at Atlanta.

They trailed the Falcons 7-3 in the second quarter when McCarthy went for fourth-and-1 from Atlanta’s 44. CeeDee Lamb was thrown for a 3-yard loss on a jet sweep and the Falcons took advantage of the field position.

Kirk Cousins tossed a 36-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open Darnell Mooney on fourth-and-3 for a 14-3 lead.

It was 14-10 when McCarthy made a stranger call for a fake punt on fourth-and-2 from the Cowboys 38. Punter Bryan Anger’s pass fell incomplete when C.J. Godwin slipped and the Falcons turned the short field into another TD drive.

“We’re making too many self-inflicted wounds,” McCarthy said.

Dallas (3-5) has dropped three straight games heading into its next game vs. Philadelphia. And, Dak Prescott’s status is uncertain because of a hamstring injury that forced him to miss the fourth quarter.

The Broncos knew they would need to score a lot of points to compete with the high-octane Ravens so Payton was aggressive from the start.

On Denver’s second possession, Javonte Williams was stopped for no gain on fourth-and-1 from the Ravens 44. Baltimore took over and drove for a touchdown to take a 7-0 lead.

Payton passed up a 51-yard field goal try on the next possession and went for it on fourth-and-4 from the Ravens 33. Bo Nix’s deep pass was incomplete and Baltimore ended up kicking a field goal on the ensuing drive.

Denver finished 1 for 5 on fourth down in the 41-10 loss to the Ravens.

“I think there are some games where your palate has to change,” Payton said about the decision to be aggressive. “Certainly, we felt this was one of those games that can vary based on the opponent.”

The reward isn’t always greater than the risk.

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