Up to the last minute, Isaac Presburger, like a lot of other Mexican businessmen, still could not believe that President Trump would deliver on his promise to hit Mexico with tariffs. Little did it matter that Mr. Trump had announced that very day that he would go ahead with the planned taxes.
“I am still incredulous,” said Mr. Presburger, director of sales at Preslow, a family-run apparel business in Mexico. “We know by now that Trump pressures you so you give him want he wants. We have given him everything and he has not let loose of his grip.”
In response to Mr. Trump’s threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican products, Mexico made a major effort: Leaders agreed to send more than two dozen alleged cartel heads to be tried in the United States, a departure from the government’s previous stance on extraditions.
President Claudia Sheinbaum dispatched thousands of National Guard troops to the state of Sinaloa, the hub of fentanyl trafficking, where they seized vast amounts of the synthetic opioid and busted hundreds of laboratories. She sent thousands more to the U.S. border, contributing to a plunge in the number of illegal crossings.
Ms. Sheinbaum bent further than anyone had expected to show the Trump administration that her government was serious about meeting U.S. demands, analysts say.
And yet, in spite of it all, the tariffs struck after midnight on Tuesday.
That has left people in Mexico’s government, business and civil society reeling, but also feeling exasperated, even betrayed.
“We are emphatic,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a news conference on Tuesday morning, hours after Mr. Trump’s tariffs took effect on its biggest trading partners, including Mexico and Canada. “There is no reason, justification or excuse that supports this decision that will affect our people and nations.”
She ticked off what she described as her government’s “significant actions” against organized crime, and noted a 50 percent drop in fentanyl seizures between October and January at the U.S.-Mexico border.
“We have worked and delivered results on security matters,” she said.
The tariffs represent not just a rift in the fabric of two economies that have been deeply interwoven for decades, but a sudden departure from a relationship that had long been collaborative and from what many in Mexico expected would take place: a last-minute deal.
Through late last week, a delegation from Mexico had been frantically negotiating with officials in Washington, and leaders had been projecting confidence. Even the financial markets held steady in Mexico.
Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, posted to social media on Friday, “Mexico and the United States have a great future working together,” with three thumbs-up emojis. Business leaders across the country shared the same optimism until Monday.
José de Jesús Rodríguez, president of Mexico City’s chamber of commerce, said Mr. Trump’s decision surprised him, particularly in light of the American leader’s suggestion that he would not impose tariffs if Mexico produced results on migration and drug trafficking. The results it delivered included a barrage of high-level arrests and the handover of the 29 accused drug bosses that the U.S. government had long sought to get on its own soil.
But Mr. Trump, whose criticism of Mexico had focused on illegal fentanyl, shifted his terms on Monday, saying that Canada and Mexico needed to relocate automotive factories and other manufacturing to the United States. “What they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” he said.
“It is extremely disappointing and frustrating,” Mr. Rodríguez said. “The United States broke their word, and it dictates the future of our commercial relationship.”
“It’s time for us to look to other regions,” he added.
Ms. Sheinbaum said she had a call scheduled with Mr. Trump for Thursday, and told reporters on Tuesday that if the tariffs remained in effect afterward, her government would go ahead with a number countermeasures, including retaliatory taxes, which would be announced on Sunday. Canada also announced reciprocal tariffs.
“We don’t want to enter into a trade war,” she said. “That only affects the people.”
Ms. Sheinbaum’s approval ratings in Mexico have soared, with many praising her coolheaded approach to handling Mr. Trump, who called her a “wonderful woman.”
But the trade wars that are now underway will test not only that relationship but how much the government can insulate its economy and its population from chaos and pain.
Mr. Presburger, the Preslow sales director, said that he still hoped the tariffs wouldn’t last more than a few days, or that Mr. Trump would change his mind. Otherwise, “it will be disastrous for Mexico.”
The United States buys more than three quarters of Mexico’s exports, and tariffs will hit manufacturing, agriculture and other businesses, immediately disrupting the supply chain and most likely raising the cost of Mexican goods sold in the United States.
Just hours before the tariffs went into effect, Manuel Sotelo, president of the association of transporters of Ciudad Juárez, said the uncertainty hovered over the many who truck goods into the United States.
He said if tariffs applied to all Mexican products, they would affect everyone. But if they also applied to raw materials coming from businesses on the border, “then the situation is going to get worse for the region.”
He said the transportation industry could not last even a week if trade were frozen.
When Mr. Trump hit Mexico with tariffs during his first term, it carried out a surgical response, targeting the retaliatory tariffs at products that were produced in Republican states considered part of Trump’s base — such as Kentucky bourbon.
The tariffs were lifted after about a year.
Preparing for the worst, Mexican business owners and trade groups were already starting to scramble.
Antonio Lancaster, president of the council of industrial chambers of the state of Jalisco, one of the largest exporters of food and beverages — including tequila — to the United States, said the chambers’ leaders were already in talks with the state and federal government about plans to bolster local production and pursue other export markets.
“We saw this coming, and this means we will pursue a rearrangement of our exports,” Mr. Lancaster said. He added, “We will end up exporting to Europe, Asia or anywhere else.”
Businessmen like Mr. Lancaster argued that the tariffs will ultimately end up hurting American consumers as well as Mexican producers.
“We all lose here,” he said.
Jesús Manuel Salayandía, coordinator of a business group on the border, said that corporate leaders mostly based in the United States, have been meeting to plan their response to the tariffs.
“They are analyzing whether they will move to Central America, to the southern part of the country, if they will return to the United States, or if they will automate or robotize certain production lines,” he said. “All of that is being considered.”
Mr. Salayandía said that the Mexican government, perhaps expecting a last-minute deal, had not worked to prepare.
They had been thinking, “Let’s wait for Trump to tell us what will happen,” he said. “But they’re not working on a plan to strengthen the domestic market or to offer incentives to the companies already here.”
Marcelo Vázquez, state delegate of the National Association of Importers and Exporters of the Mexican Republic in Chihuahua, said for the last few weeks some companies had workers on duty virtually around the clock to export goods into the United States before the tariffs came into effect.
“But that’s just an aspirin for the headache; it doesn’t really solve the problem.”
Rocío Gallegos contributed reporting from Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.
