According to officials familiar with the matter, US intelligence officials on Wednesday briefed senior military and administrative officials that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, was preparing military action against senior Russian defense officials.
US spy agencies had indications Mr Prigozhin was planning something days in advance and were working to refine that material into a ready assessment, officials said.
The information shows that the United States was aware of the upcoming events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning an invasion of Ukraine.
But unlike the first invasion, when US officials declassified the intelligence and then released it to discourage Mr. Putin from invading, the intelligence agencies were silent about Mr. Prigozhin’s plans. US officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr Putin avoid a major, embarrassing breach of his support.
In this case, information that the long-standing feud between Mr. Prigozhin, who started out as “Putin’s cook” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials was about to escalate into conflict was considered solid and alarming. Mr. Prigozhin is known for his brutality, and if he had managed to overthrow the officials, he would likely have been an unpredictable leader. And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into internal chaos posed new risks.
Although it’s not exactly clear when the United States first learned of the conspiracy, intelligence officials held briefings with officials from the administration and the Department of Defense on Wednesday. As more confirmations of the conspiracy poured in Thursday, intelligence officials briefed a small group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. By Friday night, Mr. Prigozhin had dramatically escalated his feud, launching a march on Moscow that the Russian government described as an attempted coup. On Saturday he recalled his fighters and agreed to flee to Belarus.
CNN previously reported that the United States had informed Congress leaders of its concerns that Mr. Prigozhin was preparing to challenge Russia’s military leadership.
For years, Mr. Prigozhin hated Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, and the feeling was mutual, US officials said. But it wasn’t until after the war in Ukraine, officials said earlier this year, that the hostility Mr Prigozhin frequently expressed in grumpy posts on Telegram, a social media platform, came to light.
In recent months, intelligence officials have tracked and spent much time analyzing the growing animosity between Mr. Prigozhin and Russian Defense Ministry leaders.
Intelligence agencies concluded that this was a clear sign of the internal tensions created by the war in Ukraine, a result of Russia’s struggle to ensure adequate supplies for its troops.
One official said it was an indication of how badly the war was going for both Wagner and the regular military.
As part of the published intelligence reports Discord leaks also showed that the United States had intercepted the communications between senior Russian military leaders debating how to deal with Mr. Prigozhin’s constant demands for more ammunition.
In interviews prior to the current crisis, US officials said that not only Wagner forces were facing supply shortages, but the entire Russian military. Those problems have plagued the Russian military for months, but American officials said earlier this week they have become more apparent as Ukraine’s counteroffensive began.
Mr Putin may also have given Mr Prigozhin the wrong belief that he could go beyond public criticism against his military allies. During the battle for the city of Bakhmut, the US government estimated that Mr. Putin most likely ordered regular Russian units to reinforce Wagner forces.
After the capture of Bakhmut, the Russian Ministry of Defense decided to limit Wagner’s power. Russia forced all volunteers in its armed forces to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. The move cut Wagner from recruitment and meant Mr Prigozhin would have to place his forces under the Defense Department so the mercenaries could return to the battlefield in Ukraine, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior staffer at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Putting Wagner’s forces under Mr Shoigu’s control is “out of the question” for Mr Prigozhin, Ms Stanovaya said.
Much of the tension between Mr. Prigozhin and the military had been played out in public. He used interviews and Telegram posts to berate Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov, calling them incompetent and accusing them of misleading Mr. Putin about the course of the war with Ukraine.
American officials acknowledged that there was a degree of theatricality in Mr. Prigozhin’s public grievances, but that it was nonetheless useful to Mr. Putin, who himself has privately criticized his military leadership for being too passive during the Ukraine war has been.
Still, American officials concluded that Mr. Prigozhin’s public statements were not controlled by Mr. Putin. His row with the Defense Ministry, officials said earlier this year, was real and not political theatre, fueled by the heavy losses Russia suffered at Bakhmut.
Mr. Prigozhin’s criticism went beyond a dispute over needed supplies. He accused the military leadership of corruption and incompetence. For their part, some military leaders were jealous of his influence over Mr Putin, American officials said earlier this year.
However, only in the last few days did intelligence officials receive the first warnings that Mr. Prigozhin might take action.
Officials said intelligence agencies were unaware of the possible consequences of Mr Prigozhin’s actions, but were immediately concerned about the impact it could have on Russia’s control of nuclear weapons. President Biden, in his October speech, spoke of the dangers Mr. Putin would pose if he felt cornered and said the United States was looking for it “Off ramps” for Mr. Putin.
Since Mr. Prigozhin took action on Friday, American officials have been locked down and have said little publicly about his intentions or what they knew of what was happening on the ground. Officials were cautious because events were moving quickly and because they didn’t want to give Mr. Putin an excuse to blame the West for Mr. Prigozhin’s actions. However, several officials said they fully expected Mr Putin to say the uprising was the result of a foreign conspiracy at some point.
Mr. Prigozhin faces charges in the United States for his role in attempting to sway the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald J. Trump.
