Guatemala, the largest country in Central America, will vote in Sunday’s presidential election at stake over the erosion of the rule of law in a country that has become a major source of migration to the United States.
Guatemala’s fledgling democracy — which emerged after the end of a civil war nearly four decades ago that left hundreds of thousands dead or missing, one of the bloodiest in recent Latin American history — has frayed in recent years under an increasingly authoritarian government.
The judiciary has been used as a weapon, forcing dozens of prosecutors and judges focused on fighting corruption into exile. Freedom of the press was also under attack and this month the editor of a leading newspaper that had exposed many incidents of corruption was sentenced to six years in prison after being convicted of financial crimes.
The electoral authorities in Guatemala, a country of 18 million people, have since increased their concerns about attacks on democratic norms banned several top presidential candidates who were seen as a threat to the political and economic establishment.
Tensions over Guatemala’s faltering democracy have left some voters disillusioned, questioning whether they should even bother to cast their ballots.
“I don’t think there should be an election at all,” said Óscar Guillén, 70, explaining that he plans to leave his ballot blank to express his disillusionment.
Voters will still choose from a crowded field of more than 20 candidates, none of whom are expected to gain a majority on Sunday, which would result in a runoff between the top two finishers on August 20.
Runoff elections have been the order of the day in Guatemala since peace accords in 1996 ended an internal conflict that spanned 36 years and was marked by brutal counterinsurgency tactics that led to… genocide against indigenous peoples.
The current President of Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei, is barred by law from re-election. But while a sharp rise in violent crime and the outrageously high cost of living have made Mr Giammattei, a conservative, deeply unpopular, the front runners in the race also tend to lean conservatives in general, suggesting continuity with the country’s political establishment.
Voting is not compulsory in Guatemala and the abstention rate, which was nearly 40 percent in the last presidential election in 2019, is closely monitored as an indicator of voter dissatisfaction.
Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s vote.
who is running
Of the three top candidates, none of them will probably even come close to achieving the majority that would be necessary for overall victory on Sunday. In several polls, Sandra Torres, a former first lady, appeared to be the front-runner, albeit with an approval rating of around 20 percent. (Mr Giammattei’s party’s presidential nominee is in the low single digits in the polls.)
Ms Torres, 67, was married to Álvaro Colom, who was President of Guatemala from 2008 to 2012 who died this year at the age of 71. They divorced in 2011 when Ms. Torres first tried to run for president, trying to circumvent a law that bans a president’s relatives from running for office.
She was barred from running that year, but finished second in the last two presidential elections. After the 2019 election, she was accused of campaign finance violations and spent some time under house arrest.
Ms Torres prevailed in that case late last year when a judge ruled there was insufficient evidence to stand trial, allowing her to run again. During the election campaign, she was able to enlist support from her party, National Unity of Hope, which is well-established and well-known in Guatemala.
Ms Torres, like her two main rivals, has expressed admiration for the government crackdown on gangs in neighboring El Salvador, which has helped stem the violence, but has also raised concerns about human rights abuses.
She has also pledged to increase cash transfers and food aid to poor families, building on her time as First Lady when she was the face of such popular initiatives.
Another top contender, Zury Ríos, 55, is also a well-known figure in Guatemalan politics. She is the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt, a dictator of the early 1980s sentenced committed genocide in 2013 for attempting to exterminate the Ixil Mayan people.
While the evidence against her father was carefully documented and detailed at his trial, Ms. Ríos has done so claims repeats that there has never been a genocide. Her ultra-conservative party is led by figures with ties to her father.
Although Ms. Ríos propagates her conservative views and evangelical Christian beliefs, as a former congresswoman she has a more nuanced record of forging coalitions to win legislative approval for bills designed to improve conditions for women and LGBTQ people.
Another key presidential candidate is Edmond Mulet, 72, a lawyer and veteran former diplomat who has served as Guatemala’s ambassador to the United States and the European Union and as head of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti.
While Mr. Mulet has highlighted his diplomatic experience, he is also known for his work as a lawyer in the 1980s when he was arrested in connection with his work arranging adoptions of Guatemalan children by Canadian families.
Although he was quickly released and Mr Mulet has denied any wrongdoing, he still spent time during the campaign explaining his involvement in the episode.
In his election campaign, Mr. Mulet represents a newly formed party with no seats in Congress, but which formed a competitive coalition of candidates nationally and locally in Sunday’s election. His proposals include a universal pension, an increase in police pay and the construction of a new high-security prison.
What are the main problems?
Corruption: Guatemala has received much praise for its efforts to curb impunity and corruption over the past decade. But this initiative, led by a United Nations-backed panel of international investigators, was systematic dismantled In recent years, deep-seated political and economic interests have begun to drive anti-corruption judges and prosecutors out of the country.
The exclusion of top candidates from the election, according to civil rights groups, reflects the way elites assert their power over and over again.
Migration: Guatemalans are among those fastest growing Migrant Groups in the United States. The number of people arriving each year increased by around 33 percent from 2010 to 2021, from 830,000 to over 1.1 million.
Various factors are driving Guatemalans to emigrate, most notably the lack of economic opportunity, with around 59 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
The United States made fighting corruption and strengthening democracy in Guatemala and other Central American countries a priority early in President Biden’s tenure, arguing that doing so would discourage people from leaving their home countries.
However, these efforts have done little to prevent a democratic relapse in the region or to significantly stem the flow of migrants.
Crime: A major theme throughout Guatemala’s campaign season has been calls to mimic the crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, pointing to growing frustration at high levels of violent crime.
The number of murders in Guatemala – fueled in part by powerful gangs – climbed The number of murder victims who showed signs of torture increased by nearly 6 percent in 2022 from the previous year, and the number of murder victims has also risen sharply. Many Guatemalans cite fear of blackmail and crime as reasons for emigrating.
