We usually have a song or two in mind. Finally, tick watching is musical and has many different beats.
And typically these songs turn into parodies.
For this past week, the first song after Tesla’s extraordinary run has been sealed in our minds. And then again after Friday’s personal consumption spending (PCE) figures were released. Core PCE excludes food and energy. PCE includes healthcare, education, haircuts, hospitality and more and accounts for about 50% of consumption. Powell has called it “the most important category for understanding the future path of core inflation”.
The first song? Reasons to be cheerful 1,2,3 by Ian Dury and The Blockheads.
So we have 1 (Tesla) and 2 (softer inflation). what is 3
Reason 3: Notice on the chart that the fed funds rate is now in line with the core PCE rate.
Powell should do a happy dance because that gives him the ammunition to lead us to the next songWhen doves cry by prince.
But as doves fly, so does inflation… the ultimate conundrum we wrote about (see Outlook 2023).
Pretty clear upswing in lumber prices. You see, our dear readers, when interest rates are falling, the Fed is on pause, markets are rising, consumers are spending, just like…
Commodities awaken. It is a doom-loop. A simple economic formula of supply and demand.
Our Great view Tool is invaluable to show you the ratios between all commodities and inflation rates. Many raw materials are still scarce. Copper, Lithium, Sugar, Steel to name a few. Speaking of sugar, on Friday the price closed above 21 cents a pound. The Teucrium Sugar Fund ETF (CANE) closed at a new high for the year.
In 1972, tight supply and increasing demand, along with the devaluation of the dollar, contributed to a sharp rise in the price of sugar. By February 1974, with rising inflation, rising demand and perceptions of impending shortages, sugar prices rose to over $0.65 in November.
Now, in 2023, there is speculation that lower sugar production in India will force the country not to allow additional sugar exports. In addition, reduced sugar production in Europe may force European sugar and food manufacturers to import sugar, leading to a shortage of global supplies.
If Sugar is a barometer and mirror of the 1970s, then here’s a bonus track for all of you—1979 by Smashing Pumpkins. “That we don’t care, restless as we are…”
Current Dailys go deeper into precious metals and other trading tips along with the outlook for 2023.
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Jon and Mish discuss how the market (still range bound) is betting on a dovish Fed in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg.
Mish discusses the price and what indices need to do now in this gig Make money with Charles Payne.
In this appearance on CMC Markets, Mish delves into her favorite commodities trades for the week and gives her technical take on trading opportunities for gold, oil, copper, silver and sugar.
Mish comments on the big NYSE blunder on Tuesday, January 24th in this appearance for BNN Bloomberg!
Mish discusses the ongoing bull market for commodities and why the SPY will remain range bound in this appearance on Business First AM.
- S&P 500 (SPY): SPY broke above 200-DMA and is now slightly above it, but is still a very narrow price range below 50-DMA. Had key support and now what was resistance is support at the 200-DMA and resistance is no longer 405 but 408 above.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): Filled the gap and continued to hold the 200-DMA and overhead resistance at 189. Closed at 189.58 resistance, now 190.66.
- Dow (DIA): Back above 50-DMA and holding support at 50-DMA; 341 is still resistance.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): Crossed the 50-DMA last Friday and closed above the 200-DMA and 50-DMA this Friday. The first resistance level is 299 at 200-DMA; 200-DMA is supported.
- Regional Banks (KRE): The first support level is now 50-DMA; it closed up easily.
- Semiconductor (SMH): On the 50-WMA and 200-WMA, the button support still holds up easily. 237 is still support, 243 is resistance.
- Transport (IYT): First level of support at 227 and resistance at 231.
- Biotechnology (IBB): Still best sector with 132 still holding key support and first level support now holding at 134 with 139 still resistance.
- Retail (XRT): Holding central support at 63. Initial support level at 66 resistance is still 70.
Misch Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trade Research and Education
Misch Schneider serves as director of trading education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and training to thousands of individuals, major financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial professionals to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision.
