China finds itself with limited options after US balloon down

After an American fighter jet shot down the Chinese balloon that had been hovering over the United States, Beijing’s response — defensive, angry, but hedging its options — highlighted the challenges facing China’s leader Xi Jinping as he seeks to restore ties with stabilize while giving little, if any, ground.

Hours after the balloon was struck by a Sidewinder missile and collapsed in the waters off South Carolina, China’s Foreign Ministry declared its “strong dissatisfaction and protest” and reiterated its position that the balloon was a civilian research airship that had gone off course strong winds. Washington, not Beijing, broke the rules, the ministry said.

Biden administration officials have dismissed China’s explanation, insisting the balloon was on a spy mission.

“The Chinese side has clearly demanded that the US deal with it with appropriate calm, professionalism and restraint,” said the statement by the Chinese Ministry on Sunday. “The United States’ insistence on the use of force of arms is clearly an exaggerated response.”

Chinese officials had prepared to invite US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken for talks in Beijing this week to stem tensions over a plethora of issues: technology barriers and bans, Western opposition to hard-line Chinese policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and the unification must accept American support for Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing has been demanding. Mr. Blinken withdrawn from his trip to Chinaciting anger over the balloon.

Beijing’s reaction to the bipartisan excitement in the United States over the high-altitude balloon indicated that the Chinese leadership was baffled that these planned talks in Beijing had been orchestrated by what they believed to be an innocent mistake. But China also hinted that it could somehow retaliate against the actions of the American military: the State Department noted that it “reserves the right to further respond.”

China’s Ministry of Defence, which speaks for the military, also described the launch of the balloon as an “exaggerated reaction”.

“We solemnly protest U.S. actions and reserve the right to use any means necessary to deal with similar circumstances,” the Department of Defense said in its two-sentence statement.

Calibrating China’s response will be difficult for Mr. Xi.

“China is in a very tense geopolitical situation,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of international politics at Georgetown University who was President Barack Obama’s chief adviser on Asia-Pacific affairs. “They were caught in the act and had nowhere to go. And at a moment when they want to improve relations with many major powers, mainly the US.”

China’s internet — often an echo chamber of nationalist emotion — echoed with calls for Beijing to stand up to the United States over launching the balloon. And even if Mr. Xi and other Chinese Communist Party leaders can stave off public pressure, their own prickly pride might require a token countermeasure to save face.

But Mr. Xi has his hands full with domestic pressures and may want to avoid another round of rebellion against the Biden administration. China’s economy is anemic after Mr Xi’s abrupt abandonment of strict “zero-Covid” policies, and the government is also trying to defuse a longer-term housing crisis. The United States’ tightening restrictions on sales of cutting-edge technology to China, particularly cutting-edge semiconductors, could hurt Chinese companies and Mr Xi’s innovation plans.

Since the beginning a third term of five years As party chairman in October, Mr. Xi has sought to ease tensions with western countries – including the United States, Australia and European powers – amid fears they are forming a firmer alliance committed to containing Chinese power has.

“It would be a very poor strategic move on China’s part to really make a big deal out of this,” Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, said of the balloon crash. “The more they puff and puff, the more it diminishes the credibility of their story that this was a civilian weather balloon that went off course.”

Despite mentioning possible further action, the Chinese government’s response to the balloon crash also indicated that it does not want to prolong the dispute. The language of the State Department statement indicated that Beijing could continue to defend its actions and deny that the balloon was a means of espionage, while holding back from any response that could escalate the dispute.

Notably, the Chinese statement accused the United States of violating international norms by launching the balloon, but made no mention of alleged violations of international law. China also said that with the balloon it would “defend the legitimate rights and interests of the company involved,” which could help it argue that the government was not directly involved in the balloon’s launch.

The wording “reflects that the State Department does not believe that launching the balloon is a clear violation of the law.” Julian Kua law professor at Hofstra University who studies China’s role in international law emailed answers to questions.

“The ministry will say if something violates international law, so it’s telling they didn’t say that here,” he said.

“Furthermore, they need to think about their own rights if the US starts sending balloons or drones to China,” Mr Ku added. “If they push too hard here, it would undermine any future legal argument they may have to make.”

Some in China are calling for a tougher response. After Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan last year, many on the Chinese internet expressed anger that the Chinese Air Force had not attempted to repel their plane, as one prominent commentator had suggested. Again, some voices on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media site, said their leaders should toughen up; Perhaps, said one bellicose commentatorby shooting down an American plane.

Chinese leaders have tremendous power to channel or quell nationalist resentments, and Mr Xi in particular has obliterated the space for spontaneous protests, leaving little chance that such anger will push them into provocative action. Blinken’s phone call to Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, to cancel his visit to Beijing indicated that both sides wanted to keep communications flowing, said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in east China .

But the fractured ties between Beijing and Washington could come under much greater strain when Kevin McCarthy, the new House Speaker, visits Taiwan. Mr McCarthy had previously said he could visit the island if he takes up his role to try to demonstrate Washington’s support for Taiwan against threats from China, but he hasn’t announced any firm plans.

“China will never tell me where I can and can’t go,” McCarthy told reporters last week. “But I haven’t planned anything right now.”

But even if the balloon crisis subsides quickly, it has shown how deeply trust has sunk since the thaw that began when “ping-pong diplomacy” helped pave the way for relations in the early 1970s said Professor Zhu. Back then, American table tennis players visited China for a series of games that helped ease decades of hostilities.

“More than 50 years ago, the melting of the ice in our relations began with ping-pong diplomacy,” Professor Zhu said, echoing a hoax that has been circulating on the Chinese internet. “It was a small ball that started it and now our relatives are in trouble because of a big ball or balloon. I never expected that metaphor to happen.”