By now you may have read either mine or Geoff’s article at the reset of the 6-month calendar range in July. If not, I strongly encourage you to click Geoff’s “Trades and Tutorials” above.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) chart shows a really big July range. The red line (180.72 6th July low) and 194.36 17th July high give us a glimpse of a possible range. The price of IWM rose rapidly in a matter of days since July 6th.
With this week now beginning a test of the July 6-month calendar range high, a fall below that level could mean that small-cap stocks are in for a much wider trading range. The July low appears to be a long way off. Of course, should we see a bounce from current levels, we can suspect more upside potential at 200, the next level of chart resistance.
With small-caps a key focus for us, we will be monitoring these levels carefully, especially in this heavily data-driven week. We are also monitoring long bonds via TLT.
The July range is important here in a number of ways.
- So far it’s the high and low of the calendar section.
- The current values are not far from the peak. And pretty far from rock bottom. This tells us that a rise above the 200 daily moving average and the green line at 103.26 has definite implications for the market.
- It also tells us that in between can be interpreted as “noise”.
- Additionally, a failure of the 6-month calendar range low in red has quite different implications for the market.
When we bring IWM and TLT together, we get a solid idea of what’s coming next.
We’ve included a supply for fun. International Paper (IP) is on our list.
IP is a leading paper and packaging company that stores raw materials such as wood fiber, pulp and recycled materials for paper production. The stock popped up for us while researching companies storing commodities as part of our Inflation Round 2.
IP stopped right at the 6 month calendar high. Now in a recovery phase (above the 50-DMA) we find the current price compelling. We’re showing you this so you can see the power of combining trends, stages, chart patterns, and calendar ranges.
When IP is set up, we next determine risk, profit targets and position size. IP is a stock Mish is talking about This week’s Business First AM with Angela Miles.
For more detailed trading information on our blended models, tools and trader training courses please contact Rob Quinnour Chief Strategy Advisor to learn more.
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Mish talks recession, inflation and AI approaches the opening with BNN Bloomberg.
Mish and Angela Miles discuss next steps for your money on Business First AM.
Mish talks about her approach as a professional trader Options Insight interview with Imran Lakha.
Nicole Petallides and Mish discuss crypto, commodities, inflation and gold this appearance on TD Ameritrade.
Mish and Ash Bennington cover a lot in this video by Real VisionEverything is discussed, from the Fed to inflation to the incredible stock moves and what’s next.
Mish discusses day trading tactics, currency pairs, gold, oil and sugar futures this video from CMC Markets.
Mish and Angie Miles discuss technology, small caps, and a new stock in this appearance on Business First AM.
Mish examines the old adage “Don’t Fight the Fed” in this interview on Business First AM.
Mish and Charles Payne talk about the Fed, CPI, inflation, yields, bonds and the sectors they like on Fox Business. Make money with Charles Payne.
Mish, Brad Smith and Diane King Hall discuss and project topics such as earnings, inflation, the yield curve and market direction in this appearance on Yahoo Finance.
Soon:
July 25: Singapore radio
July 26: your daily five Stock Chart TV
July 27th: live coaching
July 28: IBD Live
- S&P 500 (SPY): 450 key area, 455 resistance, 437 July low.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 193 is the 23 month holy grail.
- Dow (DIA): 34,800 support.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): There is a high reading below its 6-month calendar range, which is already showing signs of stress.
- Regional Banks (KRE): Consolidation above July calendar highs is positive.
- Semiconductor (SMH): Keeps okay here – 161 needs to be solved, under 147 problems.
- Transport (IYT): Right on the July calendar high.
- Biotechnology (IBB): 128 support now hold.
- Retail (XRT): The high of the July calendar range was never breached – now 66 is the key support
Misch Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trade Research and Education
Misch Schneider serves as the Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals as well as major financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financiers to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of Top Stock Pick of the Year for RealVision.
