KEY
TAKEAWAYS
- New Risk Off Environment for Equities
- Commodities Leading
The S&P500 trend conditions have reversed into “NoGo” and strengthened to purple bars. Alex Cole and Tyler Wood, CMT identify intermarket forces including rising rates ($TNX) and a strong US Dollar (UUP) that can provide headwinds to risk assets. A strong “Go” trend in the volatility index ($VIX), though still hovering around 20 also correlates to the new risk off characteristics on this environment.
This week we again take a closer look at GoNoGo Trend® conditions across a diverse array of the commodities markets including precious and industrial metals ($GOLD, $COPPER), softs ($COCOA, $COFFEE) and energy ($OIL) all trending in “Go” conditions and outperforming US equities ($SPY) on a relative basis. To express this thesis, Alex and Tyler look at a few equities that stand to benefit from these trends including: Freeport McMoran (FCX), Harmony Mining Inc (HMY) and Marathon Oil (MRO).
The rotation of market leadership into cyclical sectors held up this week as shown in the GoNoGo Sector RelMap®. Energy ($XLE), industrials ($XLI), and materials ($XLB) maintain their trend of outperformance against the S&P 500 index. Interestingly, Communications ($XLC) and Utilities ($XLU) have also joined the leadership group. Alex and Tyler dig deeper into the industry group level within the materials sector (XLB) to see aluminum, non-ferrous metals, and mining groups leading relative outperformance. On an absolute basis, materials have corrected to neutral amber bars as the GoNoGo Oscillator® rests at zero. Finally, Alex and Tyler review a similar risk-off condition in the cryptocurrency space as Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) reverses to “NoGo” trend conditions and what to watch for next in terms of trend continuation and opportunities to enter on pullbacks.
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Rocks over Stocks | GoNoGo Show April 18, 2024
Tyler Wood, CMT, co-founder of GoNoGo Charts, is committed to expanding the use of data visualization tools that simplify market analysis to remove emotional bias from investment decisions.
Tyler has served as Managing Director of the CMT Association for more than a decade to elevate investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets. He is a seasoned business executive focused on educational technology for the financial services industry. Since 2011, Tyler has presented the tools of technical analysis around the world to investment firms, regulators, exchanges, and broker-dealers.
