SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 12/20/22 at 3821.62.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/09/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.
Yesterday we said, “Market bottoms form on panic and the TRIN is a way of detecting the presence of panic. One-day TRIN readings above 1.30 suggest market panic. The more consecutive days of panic readings, the bigger the bottom that forms.” The lower window is the 5-day moving average of the TRIN, and the next higher window is the 10-day moving average. The chart dates back to mid-2019. We have marked with blue lines the times when the 10-day TRIN closed above 1.25 and the 5-day TRIN closed above 1.50 When these two average TRIN values are paired, the market was at least in near a base period, suggesting a rally is imminent or has already started.The 410 on the SPY is still possible in the short-term.For a confirmed uptrend I would also like to see the summation index hit +1000.
Again we have updated this chart from yesterday. The NYSE summation current index value is +683, moving up, +317 below the +1000 target. There is a good chance that the sum index will reach +1000. Bullish medium-term rallies form when the NYSE McClellan Summation Index falls below -700 (capitulation) and then rises to +1000 (sign of strength). The composite index peaked below -1000 in early October and now we are looking for +1000 to confirm a mid-term low. The window below is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. We’ve circled in red the times when the oscillator reached a +300 cluster. The current cluster of +300 readings is the largest cluster, circled in red, indicating a high level of accumulation.
We updated this chart from yesterday. Both indicators are well above -10, suggesting that the rally may continue. We said yesterday, “The lower window is the 18-day moving average rise/fall percentage for GDX and the next window up is the 18-day moving average rise/fall volume percentage for GDX. It turns out that both indicators are above -10 (marked light blue), then GDX is in an uptrend Generally speaking, both indicators have been above -10 since September The current readings of both indicators are +19, which suggests that the current rally will continue. We could see a sustained march back to the old highs near 41.00. A fall below -10 for both indicators would be a near-term bearish sign.”
Tim Ord,
editor
www.ord-oracle.com. Timothy Ord’s The Secret Science of Price and Volume book release, buy at www.amazon.com.
Signals are provided for general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable; There is no guarantee that the results will be profitable. No responsibility for errors or omissions. I am allowed to invest in the vehicles mentioned above.
