CHICAGO – Encouraged anti-abortion activists see the 2024 presidential election as an opportunity to consolidate their grip on the Republican Party.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the most influential group in the anti-abortion movement, tells every potential GOP presidential candidate that they must support national restrictions to win their support — or to avoid becoming a target of their opposition the sequence. Exceptions for rape, incest or to save the mother’s life are acceptable, the activists say, but leaving the decision up to states is not.
“It’s a level of protection that applies to each individual state. That’s the baseline of what we want to do,” said Frank Cannon, Susan B. Anthony’s chief political strategist. “Anything other than that will not be acceptable and will not be someone that SBA can support. As simple as that.”
This policy creates an early litmus test for Republicans considering running in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court fell Roe v. calf, the landmark decision that entrenched federal protections for abortion for about 50 years. While the hardline stance might appeal to anti-abortionists who are calling the shots in the GOP primary, it could cause problems for the party’s eventual candidate in the general election.
Voters protected abortion rights over voting measures In six states in 2022, including Kansas, one state, former President Donald Trump, won twice by double-digit margins. AP VoteCast, a poll of midterm voters, showed the Supreme Court decision was largely unpopular. About 6 in 10 said they were upset or dissatisfied with this, and about the same percentage said they support legislation guaranteeing access to legal abortion nationwide.
Abortion law advocates say the issue is a “game changer” that helped Democrats last year and will motivate voters even more in 2024 after two years of seeing the impact of restrictions.
“We’re in a nation where 18 states don’t have access to abortion, and that number isn’t going down. It will increase as more court cases are decided,” said Jenny Lawson, vice president of organizing and engagement campaigns at the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. She predicted people will “constantly” see headlines about pregnant children being forced to travel abroad for abortions, or people being unable to get proper treatment for miscarriages because doctors fear liability.
Pressure from the anti-abortion movement has put Trump, who last year announced his third run for the presidency, in perhaps the most complicated position.
He is arguably more responsible than anyone for toppling Roe after appointing three anti-abortion Supreme Court justices who supported last year’s ruling. But he’s also made it clear that he believes pressing ahead will hurt Republicans, and he’s accused anti-abortion leaders of not doing enough to help GOP candidates in the midterms.
“I just didn’t see them fight, fight for victory in that last election,” Trump said in an interview with David Brody, a longtime Christian Broadcasting Network commentator.
Trump, who described himself as “very pro-choice” before entering politics, stressed that objecting to exceptions for rape, incest and mother’s life “makes it a lot harder to win elections.” He has criticized evangelical leaders who have been slow to embrace it his last runBlasting decisions by pastors like Robert Jeffress to wait for the rest of the field to be judged a “sign of disloyalty.”
Cannon called the notion that abortion opposition hurt the GOP last year “absolutely absurd,” citing candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a potential GOP presidential nominee — who easily won re-election. DeSantis last year signed legislation banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
The Republican candidates who were “cheated” were the ones trying to avoid the issue, Cannon said.
“What you need to do is advocate for protections that the American people consider sane, against extremism without exception, even against late-term abortion,” Cannon said. “And when you do that, it’s a winning combination.”
SBA Pro-Life America, which along with its affiliated Super PAC has raised over $60 million for campaigns in 2020, is speaking to every potential candidate, Cannon said. As records are debated, what matters in 2024 is what policies candidates prioritize when announcing their applications. The SBA’s explicit request is to support “at least” a “heartbeat bill” or a “pain-able” bill, he said.
The Heartbeat bill would make abortion illegal after heart activity is detected, which occurs around the sixth week of pregnancy — before some women know they’re pregnant. Laws indicating that the fetus feels pain, like a measure introduced last year by Sen. Lindsey Graham, RS.C., would ban the procedure at about 15 weeks. Graham’s bill failed to advance in the Democrat-controlled chamber, and even some fellow Republicans distanced themselves from it ahead of the midterms.
Trump’s stance has created an opening on the right for potential rivals like former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, both of whom are evangelical Christians with longstanding anti-abortion stances.
Pence has spent months visiting so-called crisis pregnancy centers that advise women against abortions. And he’s embarked on a tour of megachurches, including Jeffress’ First Baptist Church in Dallas, and has spoken to major anti-abortion groups.
His advocacy group, Advancing American Freedom, has urged Congress to pass legislation including a national ban on abortion from about the sixth week of pregnancy and a law that would establish legal personality at conception. Marc Short, Pence’s former chief of staff and longtime advisor, said that when it comes to declared and potential candidates for 2024, “I see him as the most comfortable explaining his pro-life beliefs and the basis for them.”
For Pence, he said, the issue is about much more than just politics.
“Mike is doing it because that’s why he ran for office and won for the first time. It was always a top issue for him and has priority,” he said.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who served as US Ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, is another potential candidate who has enacted abortion bans in her state. The 2016 law bans abortions at 20 weeks’ gestation and provides an exception when the mother’s life is in danger, but not in cases of rape or incest.
Following the Supreme Court decision, Haley said states, not “unelected judges,” should control abortion policy. This position puts her at odds with the SBA and other anti-abortion groups.
Others see abortion as a potential vulnerability for DeSantis. A spokeswoman for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who is also investigating a possible run, recently offended DeSantis and wondered where he stood on the issue.
“Governor Noem was the only governor in America on national television to defend Dobbs’ decision,” Ian Fury wrote in an email to National Review. “Where was Governor DeSantis? Is hiding behind a 15-week ban. Does he think 14-week-old babies have no right to life?”
Cannon emphasized that members of the anti-abortion movement are the Republican Party’s “foot soldiers” during elections and make up a large percentage of primary voters.
“No Republican candidate can win the presidency without the support of the pro-life movement,” he said.
___
Colvin reported from New York.
Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, transcribed or redistributed without permission.
