- Before anything changes with the BEAD program, Trump needs to name a new NTIA administrator
- States waiting for NTIA to approve their BEAD proposals may see their deployment plans stall
- A new NTIA regime could lower the program’s high-cost threshold, opening the door for more satellite and fixed wireless deployments
With Donald Trump back in the White House, it’s only a matter of time before the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program gets the overhaul everyone’s anticipating.
But first things first, Trump needs to appoint an NTIA administrator to succeed Alan Davidson. According to Chad Duval, a partner at accounting firm Moss Adams, rumor has it the new BEAD boss will likely be Arielle Roth, policy director of telecommunications on the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee.
Her current position means Roth works for committee chair Senator Ted Cruz, who is no fan at all of the current BEAD program. Law firm Akin Gump had tipped Roth as a possible pick to fill the fifth seat at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), but Senate staffer Olivia Trusty is currently poised to take that role.
It could be weeks before Trump appoints a new NTIA chief, according to New Street Research. “With all due respect to whoever is named, we doubt it will be investor relevant,” said NSR policy analyst Blair Levin in a note last Friday.
Duval, whose firm works with telecommunications providers across the country on regulatory policy issues, said “the writing is on the wall” that BEAD’s fiber preference will be dialed back.
Trump has already issued a slew of executive orders in his first few days in office, including one freezing new federal regulations until new administrators are put in place. Given states need the greenlight from NTIA before releasing their BEAD Final Proposal and list of grant winners, their deployment plans could come to a screeching halt.
Meanwhile, another executive order called on agencies to pause disbursement of funds from both the Inflation Reduction and Infrastructure Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the latter of which allocated money for BEAD. However, the Trump administration released a subsequent memo clarifying the order only applies to certain energy projects.
Thus far, Louisiana, Delaware and Nevada are the only states to announce BEAD funding recipients. Perhaps “the train has already left the station” for them to pull back their plans amid upcoming changes, Duval said. But that leaves 53 states and territories that could see their broadband programs “change in a meaningful way.”
Elon Musk, who is close to Trump and owns Starlink parent company SpaceX, is poised to have a significant influence on BEAD policy. New FCC Chair Brendan Carr will also likely weigh in on the program.
Levin expects the upcoming NTIA administrator “to follow orders, rather than chart a new course based on their personal background and policy preferences.”
But the aforementioned law firm Akin Gump thinks NTIA “may become an even more important player on communications issues,” as it’s an executive agency and not independent like the FCC.
Aside from revising BEAD, the law firm expects new NTIA leadership will focus on “rescinding or modifying the National Spectrum Strategy and generally pushing more spectrum out.”
Paving the way for alternate BEAD tech
It’s likely a safe bet NTIA will open the doors for more low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite and fixed wireless access (FWA) technology to be used in BEAD projects. One way it can do that is by reducing the program’s high-cost threshold, which is essentially the cut-off point that allows states to choose a less expensive technology over fiber.
Whether NTIA will lower the federal high-cost threshold is “the most important variable for investors,” New Street said, as that would be the vehicle that shifts funding from terrestrial wireline providers to FWA and satellite players.
It’s even possible NTIA could do away with the threshold altogether, Duval told Fierce. The agency might tell the states, “you’ve got so much funding to get everyone in the state covered, figure out how to do that.”
But obviously, saying that any location can now be served with any technology is “an extreme approach,” he said.
Some states are taking alternative technology into their own hands. Maine launched a program in November to subsidize the cost of Starlink gear, while New Mexico requested state funding to support satellite broadband deployments in the next two years. Texas is the most recent state to open the floodgates for LEO satellite.
Another potential BEAD change New Street flagged could be an end to the Buy America requirements. Many broadband vendors have been concerned about the cost of onshoring manufacturing back to the U.S., NTIA’s Will Arbuckle has said.
While pulling the plug on Buy America rules would “marginally lower the costs for carriers,” such a move “seems at odds with the likely Trump tariffs,” Levin said. Trump intends to impose a lot of tariffs on foreign-made goods entering the country, and that could put a damper on telecom supply chains.
We’ll be watching closely to see how it all plays out.
