International shipowners’ association BiMCO raised its containership fleet growth forecast to 7.9% this year and 7.8% in 2024, and the capacity of ship deliveries is expected to reach new record highs in 2023 and 2024 of 2.3 million and 2.7 million TEUs, respectively.
In a recent study by BiMCO (The Baltic and International Maritime Council), entitled “Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook Q3 2023,” global container volumes will grow by -0.5% to 0.5% in 2023 and by 3.0% to 4.0% in 2024. Combined head-haul and regional trade volumes will expand by as much as 1% in 2023 and between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2024.
The growth forecast for both total volumes and combined head-haul regional trade volumes will contract in 2024 by 2.5% when compared to previous base case scenarios.
The average sailing speed of container ships is 3.5% lower through the first nine months of 2023 when compared to the first nine months of 2022. With slower sailing speeds, BiMCO estimates a 3% decrease in supply of available containership space will trail 3% in 2023, and by 5% in 2024.
“Developments of inventories remain a risk to future container volumes into the U.S. After a period of expansion, the value of business inventories appears to have plateaued,” the report’s authors wrote. “Relative to sales, the inventories appear to be back at the pre-COVID level. However, for the two sectors that carry the highest share of total business inventories (manufacturing and wholesale), the inventory-to-sales ratio remains above pre-COVID levels, indicating that inventory adjustments may still be needed.”
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024, which is lower than the average growth rate of 3.7% seen during the 2010s.
