Global trade is showing resilience in the face of headwinds including attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea and threats of new tariff barriers next year by the incoming U.S. president.
The World Trade Organization’s merchandise barometer was little changed at 102.7 in the latest reading, compared with 103 in September, the Geneva-based organization said on December 9. The measure’s baseline is 100, which would indicate growth over the next quarter that’s in line with medium-term trends.
The new figure suggests “trade will continue to expand at a moderate pace through the fourth quarter,” the report said. “However, the outlook is clouded by rising economic uncertainty, including possible shifts in trade policy.”
All of the barometer’s components except electronics remain at or above trend, the WTO said.
The organization’s most recent trade forecast, released in October, saw trade volume growth for this year at 2.7%, with 3% for 2025. That outlook aligns with the view expressed earlier on December 9 from Rolf Habben Jansen, the CEO of German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd AG.
He said demand for cross-border trade has been stronger than expected this year, though capacity continues to be stretched by ships sailing the long way around southern Africa to avoid Houthi attacks on the shorter route through the Suez Canal.
Container volumes are expected to increase 5.5% this year and gain 3% next year, according to figures Jansen cited during a webinar on December 9.
‘Limited’ Tariff Impact
He said President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of higher import taxes on all U.S. trading partners won’t necessarily derail seaborne commerce.
“If we reflect on what happened during the first term for President Trump, then we saw that the impact on volumes was actually quite limited,” Jansen said. “I’m also cautiously optimistic that also over the upcoming couple of years that in the end, the impact on volumes will be limited.”
Even with threats of higher U.S. tariffs, a stronger dollar accompanying those warnings means the global economic situation “should still be manageable and hopefully will only have a limited impact on global trade,” Jansen said.
A United Nations agency recently said global goods and services trade is on pace to reach a record $33 trillion this year, $1 trillion more than last year’s level, Geneva-based UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released on December 5.
Trade in services is projected to rise 7%, while goods trade will advance 2% but stay below a 2022 peak, UNCTAD said.
