After seven weeks of struggling with a crisis that defies easy solutions, President Biden could take solace in saving a single 4-year-old girl whose parents were killed in the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel.
But gratifying as it was to secure the release of Avigail Idan from her Hamas captors over the weekend, the challenge for Mr. Biden going forward is not only to free the rest of the Americans being held hostage but to use the success of recent days to alter the trajectory of the war consuming Gaza.
At the president’s urging, the two sides agreed on Monday to extend the temporary pause in the war between Israel and Hamas two more days to allow the release of an additional 20 hostages, according to Qatar, the Persian Gulf emirate that has been serving as intermediary. That gives all sides more breathing space but only postpones the most critical question by another 48 hours — namely what happens whenever the negotiated pause eventually expires.
Israel has vowed to resume its withering assault on Hamas once the hostage releases end, and Mr. Biden has said repeatedly that the country has a right to defend itself after a terrorist attack that killed an estimated 1,200 people. At the same time, the president hopes to influence any fresh military action, ensuring that it is more targeted and does more to avoid civilian casualties. The White House has already warned Israel against moving into southern Gaza, where many Palestinians living in the coastal enclave have fled, without a concrete plan to protect civilians.
“Biden’s in a bind,” said Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He’s tethered himself to Israel’s war aims — eradicating Hamas. But in view of the rising humanitarian catastrophe and the exponential rise in Palestinian deaths, he’s looking for ways to de-escalate and eventually for an exit ramp.”
“Freeing hostages is one way to try and extend the truce, get aid into Gaza and hostages out,” Mr. Miller added. “But there’s a moment of decision coming when Israel seeks to resume its ground campaign. Will he press Israel to stop or at least try to shape its operations in the south?”
The announcement on Monday of a two-day extension in the truce came after a weekend of telephone diplomacy by Mr. Biden. He consulted with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, the emir of Qatar, on Saturday, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Sunday.
In working to extend the pause and hostage releases, Mr. Biden has American interests to consider as well as those of Israel. Among the 240 hostages taken by Hamas, 10 were believed to be American. Among those released under the original deal brokered last week by Mr. Biden to free 50 hostages, the only American to be handed over so far has been Avigail, who has dual citizenship in the United States and Israel and whose name is often spelled Abigail in U.S. media.
Two American women from that group had been expected to be among the hostages released on Monday in the final stage of the initial deal between Israel and Hamas, but were not freed. That was a significant setback for Mr. Biden, who was already under criticism for failing to win the release of the vast majority of the American hostages.
Now the question will be whether any or all of the Americans will be among the hostages turned over during the two-day extension agreed to on Monday. Israel has said it would extend the pause by a day for each 10 additional hostages released.
“We’re grateful that we’ve got an extra two days to work with here,” John F. Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council, said before it became known that no Americans would be released on Monday. “That will result in the release of 20 more individuals, women and children.”
He added: “We’d certainly like to see even that extension extended further until all the hostages are released. That’s really the goal here. Get all the hostages home with their families where they belong however long that could take.”
Mr. Biden and his team, though, have been vague about what happens after that. “We’re going to continue to urge our Israeli counterparts as they plan to go back to military operations that they do it in the most discreet, deliberate, careful, cautious way possible,” Mr. Kirby said.
The longer the pause, the more time Hamas has to regroup in preparation for further Israeli assault, according to military experts. Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, acknowledged over the weekend that Hamas had exploited the hostage agreement to build itself back up after weeks of airstrikes and ground attacks by Israeli military forces.
“I can’t deny that Hamas gained some benefits from this deal,” Mr. Sullivan said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “One of them is the ability to refit and retool inside Gaza. Another is to try to use social media and other formats to generate some propaganda out of it.” But he added that the trade-off had been dozens of “innocent people coming out of Gaza to be reunited with their families.”
Republicans have offered mixed responses to the hostage deal-making, leery of challenging Mr. Netanyahu, the leader of Israel’s right-wing governing coalition, even as they castigate Mr. Biden for supposed weakness. Mr. Netanyahu agreed not only to enter a temporary truce to facilitate the release of hostages but also to release three Palestinians held in Israeli prisons for various crimes for every one hostage freed under the deal brokered by Mr. Biden.
“What I’m grateful for is that these hostages have been returned to their families,” former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Republican presidential candidate, said on “State of the Union” on CNN over the weekend. “That’s extraordinarily important and humane to have that done. So I think President Biden deserves credit for that.”
“Where I think he’s starting to err,” Mr. Christie added, is “to say he hopes that this continues, that the truce continues. He can’t be doing that kind of stuff, in my view, publicly.”
Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, took a harsher position on “Fox News Sunday.” While he said he did not “want to second-guess the Israeli government,” he was happy to second-guess Mr. Biden, accusing him of not supporting Israel enough.
“I have to say it seems like President Biden puts more pressure on Israel than he does on Hamas and its hosts in Qatar,” Mr. Cotton said. “The Biden administration has consistently behind the scenes insisted that Israel’s government take steps that are clearly not in Israel’s interest,” he added, citing the delivery of fuel to Gaza, which he said would aid Hamas, not just civilians.
Still, the pause in fighting has eased some of the criticism Mr. Biden has taken from the left wing of his party, which has assailed him for, in its view, supporting Israel too much. Israel’s military campaign has killed thousands of civilians in Gaza even as it has focused on destroying Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
The release of Avigail gave Mr. Biden a small but emotionally powerful victory amid all the tumult in the region. Taken hostage after her parents were gunned down in front of her, Avigail spent seven weeks in captivity and turned 4 on Friday in the hands of Hamas. Her case generated waves of international concern and condemnation.
“She’s been through a terrible trauma,” Mr. Biden said. “What she endured is unthinkable.”
But he reveled in her release. “Thank God she’s home,” he said. “I wish I was there to hold her.”
