weeks from political wrangling among Western allies on whether to arm Ukraine advanced battle tanks appear to be moving towards a resolution, with the Biden government and Germany expected to announce they will each send tanks, which Kyiv has been looking for for months.
This prompts Germany to deploy its Leopard 2 tanks and send the United States M1 Abrams tank are likely to prompt several European countries to ask Germany for permission to ship Leopard 2s from their own stocks, significantly increasing the potential number of modern tanks for Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany is expected to announce his government’s decision on Wednesday.
But once the diplomatic scramble ends, the hard part begins: getting the heavy armored vehicles and other combat trucks onto the battlefield while Russia prepares for a new offensive, which is expected in the spring or sooner.
US officials say it could be years before Abrams tanks reach Ukrainian battlefields. But Moscow has already stepped up its threats, with Russia’s ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov vocation attempting to send Abrams a “blatant provocation” warning that “American tanks will be destroyed without a shadow of a doubt.”
The process of supplying Western arms and other military equipment to Ukraine was one of the war’s most closely guarded secrets. Concerns that Russia will attack roads, railroads or bases for the material as it is shipped to frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine, officials and experts have called stealth convoys, usually camouflaged or camouflaged in darkness, to avoid attacks to dodge.
Russia is not known to have successfully attacked a large convoy of Western arms being shipped to Ukraine, and experts have described the process of transporting the huge munitions and vehicles to the conflict zone as a game of cat and mouse Ukraine won.
“Nobody knows in public how this happens,” said Heinrich Brauss, a former NATO deputy secretary general who is now with the German Council on Foreign Relations. “I’m not even sure the capitals know in detail. But they make it.”
The risks — and the fear of provoking Russia — are such that Ukrainian troops are having to fetch the weapons from depots on NATO territory, rather than having them delivered to the conflict zone by Western forces or contractors.
Nikolai Sokov, an expert at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation and a former Russian diplomat, said that an attack by Russia on an arms convoy “would not only delay future supplies, but also deal with at least a considerable part of modern armor before it reaches the front line. “
A Pentagon spokesman declined last week to discuss efforts to deliver the more than $27 billion in arms and security aid the Biden administration has already pledged to Ukraine, most of it since the war began last February. However, former Western military officials and experts have described a patchwork of supply routes, mostly emanating from hubs in Poland, Slovakia and Germany, that will be crucial in bringing tanks, armored fighting vehicles and huge guns to the front lines.
Most weapons are shipped on either railroad cars or flatbed trucks strong enough to support their enormous weight. Rail is generally the quickest and safest way to move armaments, experts said, as long convoys of flatbed trucks are likely to draw Russia’s attention. It would take too much time, fuel and spare parts to drive the tanks and other armored vehicles onto the battlefield, experts said. They would also essentially become a moving target for Russian warplanes.
General Robert B. Abrams, a former US Army four-star general who retired in 2021 with decades of experience operating the tank that bears his name Father, reiterated the concern of some Pentagon leaders who believe it would be difficult for Ukrainian troops to repair and maintain a fleet of the gas-guzzling tanks. And that’s after they get there.
“The time it would take to get there – to set up the stockpile, deliver the vehicles, train the crews, train the mechanics, get everything you need together – how long would that take?” General said Abrams in an interview. “I don’t know, but it’s not 30 days, I can tell you that.”
However, the impact the Abrams and its 120mm gun would have on inferior Russian tanks is not in question, he said.
“It’s going to shred them,” General Abrams said. “It will tear a hole in everything.”
John Ismay contributed reporting.
