While it remains unclear who damaged a key Russian-controlled hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine on Tuesday, the episode comes right in the middle what US officials say could be These are the early stages of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, raising the question of which side will benefit from the floods reshaping key areas along the front line.
Most experts believe the counteroffensive will take place east of the river, but the destruction of the dam could divert attention and resources from both sides.
The Dnieper forms the front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces from Zaporizhia to the Black Sea. The dam is the southernmost along the Dnipro River and is about 35 miles east of the Ukrainian-controlled port city of Kherson.
Since Ukrainian forces retook Kherson in November, Kiev’s troops have made limited river crossings towards the Russian-controlled east bank, but have failed to gain any significant foothold.
The destruction of the dam and subsequent flooding would make future incursions downriver from the dam more difficult for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are most likely afraid of Ukrainian incursions as they attempt to defend a front line roughly 600 miles long.
The flooding will also drain resources from the Ukrainian government as it scrambles to evacuate civilians trapped in the flooded area, which could potentially impact the counteroffensive depending on the extent of the destruction.
Ditto for flooded Russian-held areas on the east bank, where entrenched Kremlin troops could be pushed out by rising waters. Minefields and arsenals could also be affected.
Pro-Russian military bloggers immediately blamed Kiev for the damage to the dam, claiming the plant’s destruction was the result of constant shelling by Ukrainian forces over the past year.
Natalia Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Command, said it was clear the blast “happened from within” and was not a rocket attack.
“They decided that now in this way they can stop the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces,” Ms. Humeniuk said said Radio Svoboda on Tuesday.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian paramilitary leader who goes by the pseudonym Igor Strelkov, wrote on the news app Telegram that the drop in water levels upstream of the dam would force Russia to send reserves to the area to keep Ukrainian troops at it to prevent crossing the dam river there and establish a beachhead.
The dam war is nothing new for Russia. In 1941, during World War II, Soviet troops destroyed the Dnipro hydroelectric power station and dam north of Kakhovka to thwart a German advance, killing thousands of civilians in the process. Two years later the Germans did the same, this time retreating west.
The initial phase of what could be Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been marked by feints and distractions, notably a recent series of Ukrainian-backed cross-border incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region.
These skirmishes were minor compared to the more intense fighting to the south and east. US officials have noted a surge in activity there, and unconfirmed videos leaked to the internet showed large quantities of western-supplied equipment involved in several major Ukrainian attacks.
