Western allies this week delivered some of the most powerful weapons Ukraine says it will need for a threatened counteroffensive against Russia: a Patriot air defense system from Germany and the Netherlands. fighter jets from Slovakia. More 155 mm artillery from the United States.
And on Friday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced that Ukrainians would soon begin training on American M1 Abrams tanks for the first time — an important step in bringing the sophisticated weapon to the battlefield.
But reinforcements are still falling short of what even American military planners have estimated that Ukraine must make the most of an offensive expected to begin in the coming weeks to retake more territory captured by the Russians.
Classified military assessments from February and March, from leaked documentsshow dismal gaps in what Ukraine’s allies had promised and what had been delivered, at least so far.
John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said the US government would not confirm the validity of any of the leaked documents. However, other US officials have acknowledged that the documents are legitimate Department of Defense documents, and military analysts have said many appear authentic.
US and other Western officials note that additional arms and supplies have poured into Ukraine in the weeks since these assessments. That will certainly help the Ukrainians prepare, but even Abrams tanks, which have accelerated from initial forecasts, are not expected to make it to Ukraine at the start of the offensive.
Still, when asked in Germany about Ukraine’s preparation, Mr. Austin said the United States and other allies had “achieved our initial goals to provide what is needed to get started.”
Here’s a look at some of the weapon systems Ukraine wants most – and what its allies have been able to deliver so far.
tank
On Friday, US defense officials said about 31 Abrams tanks could reach Ukraine by the fall, bringing one of America’s most powerful weapons one step closer to war. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security issues.
Initially, it was planned that the tanks would arrive in Ukraine next year. On Friday, one of the defense officials said the tanks could arrive in time to help Ukrainian troops hold reclaimed territory during the offensive.
The leaked documents show that senior military leaders and planners from NATO countries determined that 253 tanks were necessary for Ukraine to defend its territory in the coming counter-offensive. But the documents concluded that only 200 tanks would be delivered or otherwise combat-ready by the end of April. The majority, 140, would be refurbished Soviet-era tanks, including some from Ukraine’s current arsenal.
Only 60 tanks were made by Western manufacturers – the kind of sophisticated weaponry that Ukraine wanted most and that NATO countries had pledged to supply Diplomatic haggling last winter. The Abrams tanks not mentioned in the documents would be in addition to the 60.
One of the documents of February 28 also showed that three brigades preparing to fight in the counteroffensive were each missing at least a dozen tanks.
air defense systems
Ukraine has repeatedly called for more air defense systems due to its inability to defend against certain types of Russian missile attacks. And the Shooting down an American drone by a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea last month increased fears that the Kremlin was looking for ways to use its air force more in the war.
So far, NATO allies have promised to send two Patriot batteries to Ukraine – one from the United States and one from Germany and the Netherlands, which was sent this week. Several dozen Ukrainian troops completed 10 weeks of accelerated training on the Patriot systems last month in Oklahoma.
While Ukrainian officials have thanked NATO allies for the Patriots and other sophisticated weapons, they have also lamented the delay in delivering the weapons.
Other allies have offered similar air defense systems to protect Ukrainian skies. But they had yet to be delivered in full, as the leaked documents show.
Italy and France announced in February that they would send an unspecified number of their jointly manufactured SAMP/T air defense systems to Ukraine this spring. A first battery is due to arrive from Italy next month, according to another document dated February 28.
But even that will come with “partial” capability, the document shows. Another March 2 document shows that France has informed Italy that parts of the system will not be ready until June.
The United States has deployed two air defense systems known as NASAMs to Ukraine, and the documents note that six more will come, plus one from Canada and one from Norway. Also Germany recently delivered his second of four IRIS-T systems – which it hasn’t even used itself yet – along with rockets to keep them from going out in May.
The documents also rise Concerns about how fast Ukraine burned through rockets and other munitions needed to intercept Russian airstrikes.
Still, a Western military official who briefed reporters this week on condition he would not be identified, downplayed concerns about Ukraine’s air defenses, saying sustained supplies from allies and a drop in Russian attacks had allowed Kiev to regain its stockpiles build up.
artillery
The United States is believed to have sent more than a million rounds of 155mm grenades to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, and European Union officials pledged last month to send another million next year. The NATO caliber rounds have been a weapon of choice in what has turned into a war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia.
But as of March 1, the documents said Ukraine was said to have just 9,788 rounds left from America, and they were expected to run out within days.
Over the next 12 days, the United States shipped another 30,000 cartridges, and there have been several more shipments since.
But at this point, Ukraine’s appetite for 155-millimeter cartridges is essentially limitless, and ammunition manufacturers in the United States and Europe say it will take years to catch up with demand.
fighter jets
Ukraine continues to push for American-made F-16 fighter jets as the Biden administration has denied it could take months, if not years, to train Ukrainian pilots to fly and maintain the highly engineered planes.
Last month after Poland said it would send four Of its Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, Slovakia promised to send 13 of its own, although many are old and would simply be used as spare parts for Ukraine’s own planes. On Monday the Slovak Defense Minister Jaro Nadsaid the jets had been “handed over safely” to Ukraine.
Last week, Poland received approval to send five additional MiG-29s to Ukraine which were inherited from the GDR during the Cold War and needed Berlin’s blessing for export.
But Ukraine still wants the F-16s, which have sophisticated radar capable of detecting targets hundreds of miles away, potentially allowing pilots to fire their weapons while staying a safe distance from Russia’s air defense weapons.
On Friday, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was also at the allied meeting in Germany, was asked if the United States had changed its mind about supplying the fighter jets to Ukraine. He noted that Ukraine’s air defense system has been working effectively for more than a year, and the Russian Air Force is “cautious”.
Ensuring the rigor of that air defense system “is the most important thing right now,” he said.
But Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who was in Washington last week, urged the Biden administration to allow other countries that have bought F-16s from the United States to transfer them to Kiev. This is currently not possible without re-export permits from the USA.
“Every day that the decision is postponed means Ukrainians lose their lives,” Ms Ustinova told reporters at the German Marshall Fund in Washington.
